Weekly Market Insights | Stocks Rise Ahead of Fed Meeting

Stocks posted a solid gain last week, riding a rally in megacap tech stocks while overcoming interest rate anxiety, a downward revision to jobs data, and mixed inflation reports.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.59 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 2.03 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.95 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 1.18 percent.^1,2

Stocks At New Highs

Stocks rose to start the week on renewed AI enthusiasm, with the Nasdaq hitting a new record intraday high. Stocks continued to push ahead on Tuesday despite fresh data showing large downward revisions to job creation for the 12 months through March.³

The rally continued midweek after an unexpected drop in wholesale inflation appeared to boost investors' hopes for Fed rate moves before the year's end.^4,5

Investors cheered Thursday’s consumer inflation report, anticipating that the reading wouldn't be enough to derail a Fed rate move this month. The S&P and Nasdaq posted record intraday highs and closes three days in a row, while the Dow Industrials cracked 46,000 for the first time.⁶

The Nasdaq hit a new record close on Friday, while the S&P 500 flattened out and the Dow posted a modest loss on the week’s last day of trading.⁷

Fed Meets After Mixed Inflation Reports

Wednesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report showed wholesale prices fell 0.1 percent in August after a 0.7 percent increase in July. Then, on Thursday, fresh Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed that retail prices rose a hotter-than-expected 0.4 percent in August—faster than July’s 0.3 percent gain.^8,9

All eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell this week. He is expected to outline his plan to adjust rates at the Fed’s scheduled two-day meeting, which ends on Wednesday, September 17. Investors will be looking for insights about how he plans to guide the economy through this period of sluggish job growth and stubborn consumer inflation. Many believe that Powell is behind the curve and should have already been lowing interest rates for a plethora of reasons. 

There is the market economy with equities continuing to hover near all-time highs, and then there is the real economy. The U.S. real economy has slowed, particularly on the employment front, as Corporate America is in a state of wait and see given the ongoing need for clarity and resolution to trade tariff uncertainties. This will likely be an ongoing theme as it takes time for policymakers to agree on definitive tariff rates across major global economies.

However, the U.S. economy has proved itself to be relatively resilient in the face of the often discussed macro headwinds, while being driven by corporate strength and incredible technology-oriented capital expenditures, namely via the AI hyperscalers of Amazon, Apple, Google, and Microsoft which are expected to deploy nearly $400 billion of capex in 2026 alone! So buckle up and enjoy the ride!

Gold enjoyed a solid week of gains on expectations for US interest rate cuts, real inflation adjusted rates declining, a weaker US dollar and geopolitical and policy uncertainty.

Bitcoin (perceived digital gold), rallied a few percent while Ethereum screamed higher on major institutional bets that ETH will be the preferred digital rails for the future.

Partner with a Certified Financial Fiduciary at Castle Financial - Email julie@castlefinancial.com or call us at 732-888-4994 to schedule a complimentary 30 minute consultation and second opinion if you are not already a valued client of Castle Financial.

This Week: Key Economic Data
Tuesday: Retail Sales. Import Price Index. Industrial Production. Business Inventories. Home Builder Confidence Index.

Wednesday: Housing Starts. Building Permits. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision. Fed Chair Powell Press Conference.

Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Leading Economic Indicators.

^{Source: Investors Business Daily - Econoday economic calendar; September 12, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Wednesday: General Mills, Inc. (GIS)

Thursday: FedEx Corporation (FDX)

^{Source: Zacks, September 12, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“In times of rapid change, experience could be your worst enemy.”

– J. Paul Getty

Tax Benefit and Credits: FAQs for Retirees

Lots of questions can come up about income taxes after one has retired. Some common types of taxable income include military retirement pay, all or part of pensions and annuities, all or part of individual retirement accounts (IRA), unemployment compensation, gambling income, bonuses and awards for outstanding work, and alimony or prizes. A few examples of non-taxable income are veteran’s benefits, disability pay for certain military or government-related incidents, worker’s compensation, and cash rebates from a dealer or manufacturer of an item you purchased.

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional. 

Tip adapted from IRS¹⁰

Tips for Checking Your Blood Pressure at Home

Checking your blood pressure regularly is a great step to take to monitor your health, especially if you or someone in your family is prone to high blood pressure and hypertension. 

In order to check your blood pressure at home, you will need a blood pressure monitor. Most at-home blood pressure monitors today have a digital screen, but some have a manual screen. No matter which one you have, here are some tips to keep in mind:

• Position the cuff about 1 inch above the bend of your elbow. Your monitor might have an arrow of which way it should point, but generally the stethoscope head/inflator should be over the artery on the inside of your arm.
• Allow the cuff to completely deflate before reading the results.
• Keep your arm straight.
• If the results aren’t accurate the first time, wait at least a minute before applying the cuff again.

Tip adapted fromWebMD¹¹

A train moving as fast as it can go strikes a man’s hand, yet he is uninjured and the train goes off its tracks. Under what circumstances could this happen?

Last Week's Riddle: A lone pine tree stands on a cliff. The wind is blowing from the east through the mountains. Which way do the tree’s leaves blow?
Answer: Pine trees do not have leaves.

Ruins of Machu Picchu
Machu Picchu, Cusco Province, Peru

Footnotes and Sources

^{1. WSJ.com, September 12, 2025}

^{2. Investing.com, September 12, 2025}  

^{3. WSJ.com, September 8, 2025}

^{4. CNBC.com, September 9, 2025}

^{5. WSJ.com, September 10, 2025}

^{6. CNBC.com, September 11, 2025}

^{7. CNBC.com, September 12, 2025}

^{8. WSJ.com, September 10, 2025}

^{9. WSJ.com, September 11, 2025}

^{10. IRS.gov, March 30, 2025}

^{11. WebMD, March 20, 2025}