Stocks fell last week as investors assessed the implications of a fresh Middle East conflict while digesting mixed reports on the jobs market. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 2.02 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index slid 1.24 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 3.05 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 6.62 percent.1,2 Middle East ConflictsStocks opened lower on the first trading day as investors reacted to news of military action in the Middle East. However, the decline was short-lived as investors “bought the dip.” All three major averages recovered or nearly recovered from their intraday lows by Monday’s close.3 The raging conflict in the Middle East has dramatically raised uncertainty and caused major volatility across markets. Even so, we believe the current repricing reflects a higher risk premium rather than a fundamental break in long-term growth prospects. Historically, sustained downturns are driven more by declining corporate earnings and tighter financial conditions than just headlines alone. Of course, the key question is whether higher energy prices last long enough to affect earnings or meaningfully change how markets value future growth. Currently, we see limited evidence of this happening. Markets are adjusting risk prices, not rewriting the long-term investment narratives. Stay tuned . . . . Many market gurus are trying to determine how and when the Strait of Hormuz will open and oil will be transported again through this critical chokepoint. However, the stock market will react and trade higher well in advance of the actual opening. Also, rest assured that the Strait will open as China's economy runs on imported oil and as we all know, it is always in the end about money and oil is the life blood of the world economy. Don't panic and invest wisely for the long-term. Gold - Even with wars raging, geopolitical uncertainty and trade war angst, gold has not rallied back to the highs. A strong US dollar and rising long-term US Treasury yields are headwinds, but the growing global debt still affords longer-term support for the time-tested store of value and wealth of the ages. However, gold will also decline along with stocks as it will also be sold to raise cash to meet margin calls of securities in other sectors. An opportunity for longer-term gold investors? Geopolitical uncertainty will remain the primary driver of the metals markets with building inflation worries becoming a critical factor as the hawkish implications for Fed policy will be weighed against potentially higher input costs pressuring growth outlooks, and considerations of the lousy employment numbers released last week. However, in the end gold is a hedge for fiat currency debasements and exploding global debt. In the digital world, as noted in my prior updates, Bitcoin continues to be sold into rallies. I also observed that Bitcoin is NOT a store of value, digital gold, an inflation hedge or whatever other nonsense and propaganda is being spread by earlier investors in Bitcoin looking to sell their coins into rallies - don't be left holding the bag. Does your advisor understand the changing dynamics of the worldwide financial markets and ways to build wealth in the new evolving global digital age? Give us a call at 732-888-4994 if you are not already a valued client of Castle Financial. |
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Source: YCharts.com, March 7, 2026. Weekly performance is measured from Monday, March 2 to Friday, March 6. TR = total return for the index, which includes any dividends as well as anyother cash distributions during the period. Treasury note yield is expressed in basis points. |
Focus On OilU.S. crude oil prices rose 36 percent—the biggest weekly gain since 1983. The war with Iran has brought tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for energy supplies, to a near standstill. However, the US government is offering a maritime insurance (re-insurance program) to address the issue along with naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz. This Week: Key Economic DataTuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Existing Home Sales. Wednesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Federal Budget. Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Trade Deficit. Housing Starts. Building Permits. Friday: Gross Domestic Product (Q4—first revision). Personal Consumption & Expenditures Index* (Jan). Durable Goods* (Jan). Job Openings* (Jan). Consumer Sentiment. *Indicates federal data release delayed by the government shutdown in October and November of last year Source: Investors Business Daily - Econoday economic calendar: March 6, 2026. This Week: Companies Reporting EarningsTuesday: Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Thursday: Adobe Inc. (ADBE), Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM) Source: Zacks, March 6, 2026. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule their earnings reports without notice. |
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"Kindness eases change. Love quiets fear." - Octavia E. Butler |
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3 Facts About Capital GainsWhen you sell a capital asset, like an investment or a piece of property, the sale can result in a capital gain or loss. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) defines a capital asset as “almost anything you own for personal use or own as an investment.” Here are three facts you should keep in mind: Tip adapted from IRS.gov9 |
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Finding Inner Peace Inside (And Indoors)Practiced for thousands of years, yoga has been revived in the last couple of decades. Yoga can be an optimal exercise choice for many individuals of all ages. But before starting any fitness regimen, discuss any medical concerns with your healthcare provider; this information is not a substitute for medical advice. While there are many different styles of yoga, it is generally a low-impact form of exercise. But in addition to the fitness benefits, it can help you learn relaxation and breathing techniques, regulate emotions, and quiet your mind. It’s also a great form of indoor exercise, and there are thousands of free classes online. So, if you’re looking for a way to promote both physical and mental health, you can practice quieting your inner monologue and start doing yoga from the comfort of your home. Tip adapted from Yogabasics.com10 |
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It can be measured despite lacking length, width, or height. What is it? All about but unseen, can be captured but can’t be held, has no throat but can be heard. What is it? Answer: The wind. |
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Great Indian Rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) Kaziranga National Park, Assam, India |
Footnotes And Sources1. WSJ.com, March 6, 2026 |
Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.
The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.
The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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