Weekly Market Insights | Markets Rise, Fed Cautious

Stocks rose last week as trade developments, positive Q3 corporate earnings results, and momentum in mega-cap technology drove another rally, despite some cautious comments from the Fed.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.71 percent, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index picked up 2.24 percent (the more sexy areas of tech such as A I, quantum computing, space and robotics, etc. outperformed.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.75 percent. By contrast, the MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 0.55 percent.^1,2

Stocks Up for Third Straight Week

Stocks rose over the first half of the week on news that Chinese and U.S. officials were working on a trade deal. Meanwhile, a rise in A I-related tech names lifted the broader market ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. All three major averages notched record closing highs for the first two days of the week, including the S&P 500 closing above 6800 for the first time.^3,4

Stocks continued their rise Wednesday morning as the A I trade continued to fuel momentum. But markets wobbled following the FOMC’s decision to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point. Chair Powell’s comments that the Fed may not adjust rates lower in December cut short the market's rally.^5,6

Stocks bounced out of the gate on Friday, with the Nasdaq leading gains for all three major averages as several mega-cap techology companies rallied on upbeat Q3 results and other corporate news.⁷

Record Revenue Beats: 82% of the first 150 companies reporting earnings during the Q3 earnings season, which unofficially began on October 13th, reported stronger than expected revenues versus consensus analyst expectations. That’s the highest revenue beat rate for this cohort of 150 companies since at least 2001. (Source: Bespoke) Seasonally speaking, right now is the best time to own the S&P 500 for the next 3 months, so the market has the wind at its back.

Going forward, considerations for equity markets to continue to rally are: 1) A I enthusiasm - massive capital spending plans by companies will ensure continued stimulus for the economy and markets. 2) Solid economic growth 3) Ongoing Fed interest rate cuts 4) Trade stability between nations and good news such as the war ending in Ukraine would be welcomed by the world ( the Russian economy is in decline and being pressured by many forces).

Gold declined last week on a stronger U.S. dollar and interest rate uncertainty. As noted earlier, the Federal Reserve indicated a more hawkish stance than expected, reducing the odds of more near-term rate cuts. That boost to the dollar put pressure on gold prices because it raises the cost of bullion in other currencies.

Gold has just come off a very strong run (reaching record highs above $4,300 a troy ounce and the market was technically overheated which triggered a sharp correction. Some of the safe-haven demand that had powered gold weakened as market fears around U.S.-China trade and other risks abated. Also technical triggers had broken through many psychological levels and momentum indicators flagged over-bought conditions. The break of support zones such as $4000 triggered stop losses and accelerated the pullback. Accordingly, more backing and filling will be required for gold to stabilize.

Gold meets Digital - Streamex Corp. (STEX:NASDAQ), a company focused on the tokenization of real-world commodities, has announced a strategic partnership with Chainlink, which will serve as the official oracle and on-chain transparency provider for its flagship gold-backed stablecoin, GLDY. (another demand wind for gold?) 

Over in the the digital world, the month of October marked a stumble for Bitcoin which posted its first monthly loss in October since 2018, falling nearly 5% for the month. "Uptober" for Bitcoin did not come to fruition this year. Macro-risks fading, interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, and a large crypto liquidation event weighed on sentiment and momentum faltered for the week and month. Relative to Bitcoin, Ethereum showed somewhat better resilience into the week (though still under pressure). If you are not working with an advisor who understands the crypto space, give us a call.

‘Not a Foregone Conclusion’

As widely expected, the Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates by 0.25 percent. But as often happens for those trying to read the Fed tea leaves, it was the finer messaging points that moved the markets.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his post-meeting press conference that another rate adjustment in December was “not a foregone conclusion.” He added that Fed policy is “not on a pre-set course.” Part of that, he said, was due to the ongoing government shutdown and the resulting dearth of economic data—and the challenge in setting monetary policy without ongoing reports.

Partner with a Certified Financial Fiduciary at Castle Financial - Email julie@castlefinancial.com or call us at 732-888-4994 to schedule a complimentary 30 minute consultation and second opinion if you are not already a valued client of Castle Financial.

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: PMI Composite–Manufacturing. ISM Manufacturing. Construction Spending.* Auto Sales. Fed governor Lisa Cook speaks.

Tuesday:  Trade Deficit.* Factory Orders.Job Openings.

Wednesday:  ADP Employment Report. PMI Composite–Services. ISM Services.

Thursday:  Weekly Jobless Claims.* Productivity.* Wholesale Inventories.* Federal Reserve Officials speak: New York Fed President Williams, Philadelphia Fed President Paulson, St. Louis Fed President Musalem.

Friday:  Jobs Report.* Consumer Sentiment. Consumer Credit. Dallas Fed President Logan speaks.

^{* Data for these indicators may be delayed or altogether unavailable due to the government shutdown.}

^{Source: Investors Business Daily - Econoday economic calendar; October 31, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX)

Tuesday: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), Shopify Inc. (SHOP), Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), Amgen Inc. (AMGN), Pfizer Inc. (PFE), Spotify Technology (SPOT)

Wednesday: McDonald’s Corporation (MCD), AppLovin Corporation (APP), QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM), Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD), DoorDash, Inc. (DASH), McKesson Corporation (MCK)

Thursday: ConocoPhillips (COP), Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH)

Friday: Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A / BRK.B), Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG), KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR), Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)

^{Source: Zacks, October 31, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“Thinking about what you can't control only wastes energy and creates its own enemy.”

– Sandy Fries

The Two Types of IRS Volunteer Programs

Every year, IRS-certified volunteers help people file their tax returns. This volunteer opportunity is ideal for individuals seeking to expand their knowledge of tax preparation, earn continuing education credits, or contribute to their community. 

The IRS offers the Volunteer Income Tax Assistance (VITA) program and the Tax Counseling for the Elderly (TCE) program. VITA offers free help to people earning $67,000 or less, people with disabilities, and limited English-speaking taxpayers. TCE is primarily for people aged 60 or older. Although the program focuses on tax issues unique to seniors, most taxpayers can get free assistance.

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional. 

Tip adapted from IRS⁹

4 Potential Benefits of Aloe Vera

Aloe vera is a remarkably robust plant. Not only is it safe to eat and used in many cosmetic products, but it also has many benefits that stem (pun intended) outside its typical uses. 

Here are four potential benefits of Aloe vera:

• One study found that Aloe vera is as effective as mouthwash at reducing plaque.
• Aloe vera flower and leaf extracts may have antioxidant properties.
• Aloe vera may help lower blood sugar levels for people with type 2 diabetes.
• Aloe may help with burn wounds. Patients with burn wounds treated with Aloe vera healed significantly quicker than those not treated with Aloe vera.

In addition to the above benefits, many people use Aloe vera to soothe sunburns, dry skin, and cuts. 

Tip adapted from Every Day Health¹⁰

Stick your fingers in my eyes, then move them and watch my jaws open wide. What am I?

Last Week's Riddle: If used in an emergency, I can help the hero – yet when you multiply all the numbers on my face, all you get is zero. What am I?

Answer: A phone.

Hermit Crab, Almería, Spain 

Footnotes and Sources

^{1. WSJ.com, October 31, 2025}

^{2. Investing.com, October 31, 2025}

^{3. CNBC.com, October 27, 2025}

^{4. CNBC.com, October 28, 2025}

^{5. WSJ.com, October 29, 2025}

^{6. CNBC.com, October 30, 2025}

^{7. CNBC.com, October 31, 2025}

^{8. WSJ.com, October 29, 2025}

^{9. IRS.gov, April 1, 2025}

^{10. EveryDayHealth.com, June 11, 2025}