Weekly Market Insights | Markets React to Positive Trade Talk

Stocks pushed higher last week, spurred by the White House's reassuring comments that progress was being made with trade talks.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 4.59 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index picked up 6.73 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, adding 2.48 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased by 2.86 percent.^1,2

Markets Rally

Markets opened the week lower as investors continued to fret about China trade tensions. But sentiment quickly shifted.3

Stocks rebounded Tuesday following news that the administration intended to de-escalate tensions with China over tariffs. The rally extended through two more consecutive sessions as investors responded favorably to reassuring comments from the administration.

Markets also were encouraged after the president said he had "no intention" of firing the Fed Chair Powell. They also liked hearing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments that the U.S. had an "opportunity for a big deal” with a key trading partner.^4,5

Megacap tech stocks, which had been under pressure for several weeks, regained momentum during the week, leading the market’s advance.^6,7

Housing Market Update

Fresh housing data released last week showed the median price for a newly constructed home ($403,600) and an existing home ($403,700) were virtually identical in March.

This is unusual.

Typically, the average new home costs more than the average existing home. But last month, the median new-home price while the median existing-home price rose and hit a new all-time high.⁸

^{Weekly Sector Performances:} 

^{Gold prices experienced a volatile week, peaking above $3,400 per ounce before retreating to close at $3,282.40, down 0.79% for the week.
Key Drivers: The initial gold price surge was fueled by geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. monetary policy. However, midweek gold declined as technical indicators suggested overbought conditions, leading to profit-taking by investors.}

^{Oil (WTI Crude)
WTI crude oil prices declined by 2.6%, settling at $63.02 per barrel.
Key Drivers: The drop was attributed to ongoing tariff uncertainties, potential increases in OPEC+ oil production, and concerns over global demand. Despite gains on some trading days, significant losses earlier in the week led to an overall decline.}

^{U.S. Dollar (DXY)
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose by 0.4%, marking its first weekly gain in over a month.
Key Drivers: The dollar's strength was supported by signs of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, as well as mixed economic data that influenced investor sentiment.} 

^{Bitcoin
Bitcoin's price increased by approximately 4%, closing the week around $94,000.
Key Drivers: The cryptocurrency's rise was driven by substantial inflows into Bitcoin ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds), renewed institutional interest, and broader optimism in the digital asset market.} 

^{Financial markets occasionally deliver periods marked by unusual events and unexpected correlations. Yet today's environment stands apart, marked by conditions rarely, if ever, seen in modern market history with: simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds in prior weeks, elevated volatility reminiscent of crisis periods, a near-freeze in the high-yield junk bond market, and corporate uncertainty at historically elevated levels.} 

^{These anomalies reflect deeper economic concerns, primarily stemming from heightened tariff uncertainties, inflation fears, and ambiguous monetary and fiscal policy paths. As noted, this past week afforded promising performances for stocks, bonds and the US dollar, but the macro picture is still fraught with uncertainties. 
A seasoned, sophisticated and very successful client, Christopher, mentioned last year that no matter who became President there would be a recession in early 2025 resulting from the Biden administration's policies and the tariffs uncertainties now are certainly exacerbating the situation.} 

^{However, the jury is still out on how things will play out with the tariffs and the positive momentum this past week certainly bods well for the future outlook. The news continues to progress with tariffs and the coming tax legislation along with good earnings being reported by some companies along with forward guidance.}

^{The US was "jumping into a recession", considering the disconnect between hard data and soft data coming into 2025 which is something Fed Chair Powell observed. Of note, the hard economic data could be strong now due to demand being pulled forward on tariff fears, and it may be more prudent to look at soft data as prior to tariff news, hard data was already slowing along with most of the employment numbers being reported erroneously last year. Lot's of moving parts and much uncertainty in the global macro picture, so stay tuned!} 

^{Partner with a Certified Financial Fiduciary at Castle Financial}

^{In these volatile and uncertain times, the biggest value of working with a seasoned advisor, acting as a fiduciary, is having someone to help control emotions and not get caught up in making bad investment decisions. Let's face it, when times are turbulent, emotions will often trump logic, leading to devastating financial decisions.} 

^{Email julie@castlefinancial.com or call us at 732-888-4994 to schedule a complimentary 30 minute consultation and second opinion if you are not already a valued client of Castle Financial.}

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: Trade Balance in Goods. Retail & Wholesale Inventories. Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Consumer Confidence. Job Openings.

Wednesday: Gross Domestic Product (GDP). ADP Employment Report. Pending Home Sales. Personal Consumption & Expenditures (PCE) Index.

Thursday: ISM Manufacturing. Construction Spending. Auto Sales.

Friday: Employment Report. Factory Orders.

^{Source: Investors Business Daily - Econoday economic calendar; April 24, 2025
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: Welltower Inc. (WELL), Waste Management, Inc. (WM)

Tuesday: Visa Inc. (V), The CocaCola Company (KO), Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG), S&P Global Inc. (SPGI), Pfizer Inc. (PFE), Honeywell International Inc. (HON), Spotify Technology (SPOT), American Tower Corporation (AMT), Altria Group, Inc. (MO), Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)

Wednesday: Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), Automatic Data Processing, inc. (ADP)

Thursday: Apple Inc. (AAPL), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), Mastercard Incorporated (MA), McDonald’s Corporation (MCD), Amgen Inc. (AMGN), Stryker Corporation (SYK), The Southern Company (SO), Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE), KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR)

Friday: Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A/BRK.B), Exxon Mobile Corporation (XOM), Chevron Corporation (CVX)

^{Source: Zacks, April 24, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

"When you come to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."

– Franklin Delano Roosevelt

Recovering Documents Following a Natural Disaster

Suppose you live in an area that’s prone to natural disasters. In that case, it’s essential to prepare to manage your important documents and paperwork and know what to do if those materials are lost. Here are some tips from the IRS:

• Contact the IRS or search their database online for help reconstructing records after a natural disaster or casualty loss.
• Download  Publication 547, Casualties, Disasters, and Thefts, and Publication 584, Casualty, Disaster, and Theft Loss Workbook, to figure out your loss on business and income-producing properties in the event of a natural disaster.
• Read Publication 3067, IRS Disaster Assistance - Federally Declared Disaster, for information about how federally declared disasters affect individuals and business owners. This document also covers the assistance available to victims.

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional. 

Tip adapted from IRS⁹

Everything You Need to Know About Walking Meditation

You’ve likely heard about sitting meditation, where you’re encouraged to find a comfortable place to sit or recline, but have you ever heard of walking meditation?

Walking meditation follows similar principles to sitting or lying meditation, but instead of staying in the same place, you focus on your footsteps and walking. The goal is to be mindful of every step and experience something we usually do automatically. You can focus on each step's mechanics, breathing, or the sights and smells on your walk. And you don’t have to walk far to enjoy the benefits! A 10-minute walk will leave you more focused, mindful, and centered.

Tip adapted from Greater Good in Action at Berkeley¹⁰

It has dozens of fine teeth, but you can hold it in your hand, and it will never bite you. What is it?

Last week’s riddle: What 10-letter word (in English) can you type using only the topmost row of letters on a computer keyboard (the Q-P row)? Hint: the first two letters of the word are next to each other in the Q-P row.
Answer: Typewriter.

African Cheetah
Johannesburg, Gauteng, South Africa 

Footnotes and Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, April 25, 2025}

^{2. Investing.com, April 25, 2025}

^{3. MarketWatch.com, April 21, 2025}

^{4. CNBC.com, April 22, 2025}

^{5. The Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2025}

^{6. CNBC.com, April 24, 2025}

^{7. The Wall Street Journal, April 25, 2025} 

^{8. MarketWatch.com, April 24, 2025}

^{9. IRS.gov, October 17, 2024}

^{10. Berkeley.edu, December 12, 2024}