Weekly Market Insights | Markets Cringe At Returned Tariff Talk

Stocks moved lower last week as fiscal fears and fresh tariff threats loomed over market sentiment. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 2.61 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.47 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 2.47 percent. On the other hand, the MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, advanced 1.14 percent.^1,2

Stocks Slip

On Monday, stocks were under a bit of pressure after credit rating agency Moody's downgraded the U.S. as an issuer of government bonds.^3,4

Stocks remained under pressure midweek as Treasury yields moved higher with the 30-year bond interest rate hitting a 19-month high. Investors fretted about the budget deficit; some feared the deficit would be made worse by the spending bill winding its way through Congress. After the House of Representatives approved the bill, bond yields backed off their highs and stocks traded sideways.^5,6

On Friday, stocks dropped after President Trump warned of a 50 percent tariff on European Union goods following an apparent stall in trade negotiations. At the same time, the administration also threatened a 25 percent tariff on any iPhones manufactured outside of the U.S.⁷

^{As of this Sunday evening, President Trump has agreed to delay the 50% tariffs on the European Union until July 9th to allow more time for negotiations and stock futures and cryptocurrencies are rallying across the board in the after market hours on the news. Markets are closed on Monday, Memorial Day, for honoring and mourning the US military personnel who died while serving in the United States Armed Forces.} 

Stock Market Influencer this week:

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is scheduled to report its fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings on Wednesday, May 28, 2025, after the market closes. Investors will be closely monitoring the report for insights into Nvidia's AI chip demand, particularly in light of recent U.S. export restrictions to China. Despite these challenges, analysts remain optimistic, noting that China now accounts for only about 5% of Nvidia's total sales. 

Nvidia's performance is seen as a bellwether for the broader tech sector, especially amid ongoing trade tensions and market volatility. The upcoming earnings report could significantly influence investor sentiment and market direction in the near term.

Bitcoin (BTC) is climbing up the asset ranks. The rally this past week took it to new highs and has lifted its market capitalization to $2.2 trillion for the first time. Bitcoinhas already overtaken Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG) to become the world's fifth-largest asset and now sits behind iPhone maker Apple (APPL), software developer Microsoft (MSFT) and chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA), all of which are valued at over $3 trillion. Way ahead is hard-to-produce, store-of-value gold at an estimated $22 trillion.

Gold is beginning to turn sideways in a trading range between more formidable support near $3,200, while resistance is emerging at $3,450 amid two failed attempts to break higher. Until we see new highs, the near-term trend should be considered neutral, while the long-term outlook continues to favor the bulls, as has been the case all year.

Meanwhile, the United Kingdom overtook China as the second-largest holder of U.S. debt, and Tether's U.S. Treasury holdings are poised to surpass Germany's, potentially placing it among the top 20 foreign holders (Tether - USDT - is a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar).  At a time when the U.S. is actively seeking buyers for its bonds, none may be more critical than the issuer of the largest stablecoin, Tether. Stay tuned.

Partner with a Certified Financial Fiduciary at Castle Financial - In these volatile and uncertain times, the biggest value of working with a seasoned advisor, acting as a fiduciary, is having someone to help control emotions and not get caught up in making bad investment decisions. Let's face it, when times are turbulent, emotions will often trump logic, leading to devastating financial decisions.

Email julie@castlefinancial.com or call us at 732-888-4994 to schedule a complimentary 30 minute consultation and second opinion if you are not already a valued client of Castle Financial.

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: Market Holiday

Tuesday: Durable Goods. New York Fed President John Williams and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speak. Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Consumer Confidence.

Wednesday: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes. Neel Kashkari speaks.

Thursday: Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Jobless Claims (weekly). San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speak. Fed Balance Sheet. Pending Home Sales.

Friday: Personal Consumption & Expenditures (PCE) Index. International Trade Balance in Goods. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Austan Goolsbee speak. Retail and Wholesale Inventories. Consumer Sentiment.

^{Source: Investors Business Daily - Econoday economic calendar; May 23, 2025
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Wednesday: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), Salesforce Inc. (CRM)

Thursday: Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST), Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)

^{Source: Zacks, May 23, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

"You can’t destroy knowledge. You can stamp it under and burn it up and forbid it to be, but somewhere it will survive."

– Leigh Brackett

Help Get Your Federal Withholding Correct With This Tool From the IRS

The IRS has a handy tool called the IRS Tax Withholding Estimator to help taxpayers better understand their withholding. It’s essential to examine your federal withholding periodically to ensure you are comfortable with the amount of tax withheld. 

Checking your withholding status may be a good idea to consider if you have experienced a change that may affect your tax status, such as:

• Going through a marriage or divorce

• Having or adopting a child

• Purchasing a new home

• Working two or more jobs at the same time

• Only working part of the year

• Claiming credits such as the child tax credit

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional. 

Tip adapted from IRS⁹

What is Sleep Hygiene?

We all want a better night’s sleep, and your sleep hygiene routine might impact the amount and quality of shut-eye you get. Sleep hygiene refers to your habits to get a good night’s sleep. The better your habits, the better your chances are of improving your sleep. 

Here are some good sleep hygiene tips:

• Be consistent with your sleeping and waking times, even on weekends!

• Make sure your bedroom is dark, quiet, and of a comfortable temperature

• Invest in blackout curtains or a white noise machine to drown out light and sound

• Avoid electronic devices, including phones and TV, at least an hour before bed

• If your appliances have a “night” mode, switch this on a few hours before bed to reduce blue light

• Make sure to get enough exercise during the day, which may help you fall asleep faster

Tip adapted from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention¹⁰

It has dozens of fine teeth, but you can hold it in your hand, and it will never bite you. What is it?

Last week’s riddle: What can go down a chimney when it is down but can’t go up through a chimney when it is up?
Answer: An umbrella.

View of Guatapé
Piedra del Peñol, Colombia

Footnotes and Sources

^{1. WSJ.com, May 23, 2025}

^{2. Investing.com, May 23, 2025}

^{3. CNBC.com, May 19, 2025}

^{4. CNBC.com, May 20, 2025}

^{5. CNBC.com, May 21, 2025}

^{6. CNBC.com, May 22, 2025}

^{7. WSJ.com, May 23, 2025}

^{8. MarketWatch.com, May 23, 2025}

^{9. IRS.gov, August 20, 2024}

^{10. CDC.gov, December 12, 2024}