Weekly Market Insights | Happy Q3 Results in Upbeat Market

Stocks rose last week thanks to a full slate of upbeat third-quarter corporate results and mild inflation data, which helped soften concerns over trade tensions with China which have abated during this weekend. 

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.92 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.31 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2.20 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 1.24 percent.^1,2

S&P, Dow Set New Highs on Friday

Stocks rose out of the gate as optimism returned to markets. Strength in the tech sector—and whispers of an imminent end to the government shutdown—pushed all three market averages higher.³

But the strong start turned mixed as some pressure on megacap tech stocks pulled down the Nasdaq. But while tech stocks regrouped, attention shifted to the Dow Industrials, which hit a record intraday high of 47,000 and a record close.⁴

Sentiment soured midweek as weaker-than-expected earnings results from two megacap tech companies dragged down technology names. Markets came under further pressure following news that the administration was considering restrictions on U.S.-made software exported to China. The S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all closed lower on Wednesday.⁵

However, the mood brightened Thursday as more megacap tech companies announced strong Q3 results, and as the White House confirmed a scheduled meeting with China. News on Friday that inflation rose more slowly than expected boosted all three averages. The S&P 500 and Dow Industrials hit all-time intraday and closing highs.⁶

Gold – We realized substantial profits in pure gold funds for our valued clients. However, many of the structural drivers of gold’s strong move to record historical highs are still intact: expectations of lower interest rates, central bank buying, global uncertainty, fiat currency debasement, etc. and many analysts are talking about this recent drop in price as a pause or correction, rather than a collapse and forecasts remain elevated for the longer-term.

In other words, a drop now does not mean the bullish trend for gold is over and it may likely be a normal healthy pullback after a substantial run-up. It is now gold's turn for backing and filling before gold resumes its ascent unless macro conditions change dramatically for the better. FYI- The gold security that we own for clients that pays a 1% monthly dividend held up exceptionally well. Stay tuned. . . .

Over in The Digital Space it appears that the backing and filling that I noted it past updates has run its course and both Bitcoin and Ethereum are trending higher again. There are currently 6.7 million ETH - representing 5.6% of the total supply - held by Exchange Traded Funds, a figure that has surged 64% since July 1st 2025. In total, nearly $26b is now held by the ETH ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds).

Meanwhile, another 5.6 million ETH (4.7% of the supply) are held by recently launched public companies that use ETH as a reserve asset. This rapid expansion underscores a broader truth that traditional finance is merging with onchain finance. From the U.S. government's Project Crypto to the pending Crypto Market Structure Bill, regulatory and institutional frameworks for digital assets are being developed that will define the next chapter of capital markets. Any away we go. . . .on the digital rails of the future! 

Fed Moves - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that a sharp slowdown in hiring poses growing risks to the U.S. economy leading to a sign the US central bank may cut interest rates again before year-end. Speaking at the National Association for Business Economics conference, Powell noted that while inflation remains above target, employment data has weakened enough to shift the Fed's focus toward job stability. Also, note the many corporate layoffs due to A I that is accelerating. The Fed is clearly behind the curve with regard to unemployment.

The central bank is also expected to stop shrinking its $6.6 trillion balance sheet in the coming months, which could help ease longer-term borrowing costs - Q E (quantitative easing)? The Fed's next meeting is scheduled for October 29th, with another policy decision expected in December. I expect rates to trend lower.

Partner with a Certified Financial Fiduciary at Castle Financial - Email julie@castlefinancial.com or call us at 732-888-4994 to schedule a complimentary 30 minute consultation and second opinion if you are not already a valued client of Castle Financial.

Inflation Eases

The Consumer Price Index report, delayed due to the government shutdown, showed prices rose by 3.0 percent in September on an annualized basis, slightly cooler than the 3.1 percent forecast.

This news paved the way for the Fed to stick with its penciled-in rate cut at its two-day meeting, which ends on October 29.

In addition to the upbeat inflation news, Q3 corporate earnings–one of the key drivers of stock prices–have been beating expectations 80% of the time as of Friday.⁷

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: Durable Goods.

Tuesday: Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Consumer Confidence.

Wednesday: Trade Balance in Goods. Retail & Wholesale Inventories. Pending Home Sales. Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Day 2. Fed Interest Rate Decision. Fed Chair Press Conference.

Thursday: Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Weekly Jobless Claims. Fed Official Michelle Bowman speaks.

Friday: Personal Consumption & Expenditures (PCE) Index. Dallas Fed President Logan, Cleveland Fed President Hammack, and Atlantic Fed President Bostic speak.

^{Source: Investors Business Daily - Econoday economic calendar; October 24, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: Welltower Inc. (WELL), Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (CDNS), Waste Management, Inc. (WM)

Tuesday: Visa Inc. (V), United Health Group Incorporated (UNH), NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE), Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG), Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO), American Tower Corporation (AMT)

Wednesday: Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG/GOOGL), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW), Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ), The Boeing Company (BA), KLA Corporation (KLAC), Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP), CVS Health Corporation (CVS), Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)

Thursday: Apple Inc. (AAPL), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), MasterCard Incorporated (MA), Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK), Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD), Stryker Corporation (SYK), S&P Global Inc. (SPGI), Comcast Corporation (CMCSA), Altria Group, Inc. (MO), The Southern Company (SO)

Friday: Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), AbbVie Inc. (ABBV), Chevron Corporation (CVX)

^{Source: Zacks, October 24, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“Fact creates norms, and truth illumination.”

– Werner Herzog

Finding the Goldilocks Tax Withholding

Just like how Goldilocks had to try the porridge that was too hot and then the one that was too cold before she found one that was just right, you need to find the amount of tax withholding that’s not too much or too little for your circumstances. No one wants a nasty surprise when Tax Day comes, and proper withholding can help you manage these surprises. 

You should especially check your withholding after a significant life change, such as marriage, divorce, the birth of a child, a move, or changes in tax law.

How much should you withhold? The Tax Withholding Estimator on the IRS website can help determine if you have too much income tax withheld and how to adjust it.

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional. 

Tip adapted from IRS⁸

Cut Your Soda Habit With These Alternatives

Are you in the habit of drinking too much soda? Luckily, there are many delicious alternatives to help you cut back. Here are just a few:

• Sparkling water—If you’re after a carbonation fix, there are so many delicious brands and flavors of sparkling water that you’re sure to find one you like.
• Coffee or tea—If you drink soda for the caffeine jolt, try switching to unsweetened coffee or tea instead.
• Fruit—If you have a sweet tooth that only soda can satisfy, try snacking on whole fruits like peaches, mangoes, or berries instead. These fruits have natural sugar.

If you can’t stop drinking soda, try making your own! You can make a healthier version of store-bought soda using a carbonation machine and different flavors of syrups. Generally, these homemade sodas have less sugar and other additives.

Tip adapted from Medical News Today⁹

If used in an emergency, I can help the hero – yet when you multiply all the numbers on my face, all you get is zero. What am I?

Last Week's Riddle: Fill in the blank: if Ruby’s mom is Patricia, then Patricia is the ____ of Ruby’s mother.

Answer: Name.

Dallas, Texas, United States

Footnotes and Sources

^{1. WSJ.com, October 24, 2025}

^{2. Investing.com, October 24, 2025}

^{3. CNBC.com, October 20, 2025}

^{4. CNBC.com, October 21, 2025} 

^{5. CNBC.com, October 22, 2025}

^{6. WSJ.com, October 24, 2025}

^{7. WSJ.com, October 24, 2025}

^{8. IRS.gov, May 16, 2025}

^{9. Medical News Today, June 11, 2025}